Predictive analytics is supposed to tell you where the market is going. Kudzu is supposed to tell you where the fence used to be. Both are accurate in a way that doesn't help you when the vine has your mailbox and the market has your mortgage.

At a software company in Raleigh, we built models to spot trends. At my grandmother's place, we built fences to keep the goats out of the garden. The models were elegant. The goats were not. Both tested the limits of our faith.

The modern forecast is a map that covers everything but the ground beneath your feet. A vine knows where it is because it is already there. The rest of us are still drawing charts.